Daily 29 July
Positives
MACD is above the sig line & rising
Histogram is above zero
Stochastics are in the bullish zone above 50
Negatives
Stoch 5 is below the sig line & falling
Stoch 14 is below its sig line & falling
Outlook
We had a breakout from the 26 – 37 range last Tue. on slightly higher avg vol.
The next projected range is 37 - 48.
With the stoch’s trending down I would expect the sp to follow suite & retest the breakout point at the top of the prev range around 37.
That would be a normal pull back after a breakout & lead to a continuation if successful.
The expectations of a solid project update showing the construction phase almost completed & production starting very soon should provide added support & a buffer to all but a major market bust up.
The usual market forces will continue despite the fundamentals though & if there is any uncertainty arising from the project update then we could see a deeper pullback.
The reported open positions are almost all closed out as of the 25 July but shorters are still active in the daily space & there are still 2 million loaned / borrowed outstanding for that purpose.
Resistance atm is around 42 & the mid-point of this new range (37 – 48)
Support is around 37 then down around 33 – 34 if the break out pattern fails.
Weekly
Positives
Macd is trending higher & above the sig line
Histogram is rising back toward the zero line
Stoch 14 is above its sig line & rising
Vol is increasing although still moderate
The L/T rising weekly trends are still intact
Negatives
Failed to hold above the top of the range box
Vol was net selling but very low
The L/T rising weekly trends are still intact
Outlook
The weekly chart looks quite bullish but we are so far lacking the spark to set of the market. That may come with the next project update perhaps.
There is a lot happening this qtr as well
The failure to hold the break out & lack of vol showed profit takers after the prev weeks solid gains & ongoing recovery. Vol for the week was up on the prev but was low net selling of 525,411 with reported shorts up to Thu. accounting for 40% of that net sell vol
With the daily showing some signs of slowing momentum I would expect to see that reflected on the weekly with 37 being support then down around the 34 area.
Resistance is 42 – 45 then on up to meet the down trending line around 48.
Any selling now is just the usual smoke & mirrors
The indicators show that we are only at the start of the next move up.Monthly
The month ended as expected & a clear support at 34 - 35
The last two candles clearly show rejection of anything lower than that
The L/T trend is still intact & rising
Vol last month was half that of June
Resistance is 40 – 43
The indicators are still negative looking but nothing to worry about.
MACD has peaked & is above but returning to its sig line
Histogram is trending down but remains above zero
Stoch has came out of the overbought area but is in the bullish zone above 50.
It looks like all upside from here.
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