I agree with a lot of what you've written. However, a few points...

I agree with a lot of what you've written. However, a few points of note:

• I'm not sure about Shell but the period between discovery and flow test on the Venus discovery for TotalEnergies was over a year (discovery declared in February 2022, flow test sometime between July and September 2023). Rig availability played a big part in the delay but note that Total went ahead and drilled Venus-1A before doing a flow test on Venus-1X so they weren't exactly in a rush. The supermajors/majors also have huge resources at their disposal to quickly design a well test whereas we have no one on staff with the necessary skills (I think the company might have less than 5 full time employees?). I agree that Galp's turnaround was pretty quick, but they had the advantage of knowing that there were commercial discoveries elsewhere in the Orange Basin so were likely prepared for a discovery scenario. Galp also drilled a second well before flow testing which gave them time to plan the flow test and mobilize the necessary equipment.
• Building the supply base in Namibia makes complete sense even if they also intend to service Zimbabwe from there for several reasons: The projects in Namibia are far more advanced/progressed than Invictus' project. Unlike Zimbabwe, Namibia is not land locked, making it easier to bring equipment into the country. Namibia is far more stable politically than Zimbabwe. Namibia is probably the hottest jurisdiction on the planet atm from an exploration standpoint (I think this is your point but it doesn't imply Invictus does not have a significant discovery).
• The Orange Basin is much larger than the Cabora Bassa Basin and has multiple operators and prospects whereas Zimbabwe has one operator that controls the main part of the basin. If the Cabora Bassa Basin were split across multiple companies we may be seeing more activity. The Orange Basin has been years in the making whereas Zimbabwe only opened up recently after Mugabe was thrown out. I agree that Namibia will be much bigger than Zimbabwe however, this is regardless of how successful Invictus ends up being. The Orange Basin is simply too big and has too much potential for the Cabora Bassa to compete. That doesn't negate Invictus' potential though.

I'm concerned about reservoir quality as well but one positive note is that very good reservoir quality was observed at outcrop. Scott's statement that they need to find the sweet spots (via 3D seismic) seems reasonable to me. Furthermore, he confirmed that based on the samples, the low permeability/porosity in the Upper/Lower Angwa was not caused by overburden pressure meaning the sands were not crushed but some instead were "ratty" meaning there were sediments that contributed to the tightness (apologies if I'm using incorrect terminology). It's possible the sands are good at outcrop but bad everywhere else in Mukuyu but that seems a bit unlikely imo. What are you thoughts on the sands having good porosity/permeability at outcrop? Is that a good sign or doesn't it matter? I imagine proximity to Mukuyu plays a factor and I don't know the distance (samples were taken somewhere to the northwest of Mukuyu outside of the license area). Scott has always said that the big risk pre-drill at the Mukuyu prospect was lack of seal but they ended up finding very thick seals at multiple horizons. Per Scott, the fear was that the basin was too sandy.