So I think it's safe to say these major factors influenced the drop (and potentially slight recovery of the SP):- A misunderstanding of the structure of the agreement where most people misinterpreted it as though ARL gave half the entire company away (very incorrect)
- People sold the news (fairly normal practice)
- The misunderstanding of the announcement and selling of the news spooked people leading to a drop
- Ravensthorpe closure created negativity
Here's the reality that is coming to light:- The deal is well structured and shows international supply chain strengthening, which as been a major news topic for the last few months
- The Japanese have spent two years confirming how vital this resource is to them
- Ardea free carries through to production
- There is no share dilution
- They've raised $98.5m with a market cap of $130m (insane)
- At production, they share equally in $800m EBITDA annually (leaving75% of their resources free for more partnerships and developments)
- 40+ year mine
- Ravensthorpe (and others) closing is actually a bullish event for this new partnership (strengthening future supply and giving a new investment option for punters)
- Major analysts have reversed their initial surplus forecasts and it's common belief we're heading into deficit
- US, Japan, Philippines and Australia have been panicking about green nickel supply chain options (which we have shown exist at a competitive price here)
- This isn't just EV driven, it's a military matter where nickel plays a major role in the production of ammo, weaponry, stainless steel etc
- From all that panic selling, the shares were scooped up through manipulation (someone wants them, could it be like how BHP was 3rd major holder of Heron in a similar way of accumulation?)
Aus. Gov. Funding:https://business.gov.au/grants-and-programs/international-partnerships-in-critical-minerals#:~:text=The%20International%20Partnerships%20in%20Critical,chains%20with%20Australia's%20international%20partners.
If you actually read the conditions here, it's like the International Partnerships in Critical Minerals funding was written for Ardea:
- A grant of between $2 million and $20 million to cover up to 50% of eligible expenditure.
- are an eligible entity
- have an eligible project
- have eligible expenditure
- can fund your share of the eligible expenditure
- have an eligible international priority project partner
-
You must complete your project by 31 March 2027. To be eligible your activities must:
§relate directly to the project
§occur between the post-exploration and final investment decision stages of your project
§accelerate development and/or processing of your critical minerals resource
§support diverse, resilient and sustainable critical minerals supply chains, in particular with our international partners in the critical minerals sector
§have at least $4 million in eligible expenditure.
Based on the assessment and approval criteria, May is a potential announcement month for $20m funding. Federal Minister for Resources Madeleine King said the project is a great example of collaboration between Australia and Japan and the enduring partnership between the two countries.
“This is a globally significant nickel-cobalt project that shows how Australian nickel projects can succeed economically, while also meeting the world’s best environment, social and governance standards,” King said. “The road to net zero runs through Australia’s resources sector.”
New Partners:Also, Ardea has been clear there are other partners in the wings that have been doing due diligence on the other resource deposits. Further partnership announcements are probable (for the millionth time, the Japanese currently stand to unlock about 12.5% ownership of the total nickel cobalt if they secure funding). That leaves ALOT of opportunity for a Volkswagen, Tesla, major OEM etc.
Quote from Half Year 31 Dec 2023 reports:
`Once the Goongarrie Hub Strategic Partner has been selected and the DFS is underway, Ardea can consider partner
or joint venture options for other projects, such as the Kalpini and Yerilla Hubs.'
For the last two years, the major risk and concern for this share was:
- whether the Japanese consortium pulled out (THEY DIDN'T)
- whether there was going to major dilution of the share price or the need for further capital raises to fund the DFS etc (NOT NEEDED and DIDN'T HAPPEN)
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