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FY24 YE Numbers
These wont be brilliant on the face of it, just because it takes a while for revenue growth to feed through to historical numbers. Really need to keep on eye on ARR growth for now. The old school accounting will catch up inevitably!
With such dramatic growth of the new product, it is a bit hard to forecast at this stage but below is is what I think the full year reporting could look like. Could be wrong, wouldn't be the first time sadly.
There is definitely a bit of guesswork going on because not sure what the gross margin is on the new product, Pearl Diver. Just know that GP went from about 50% in FY22 to 67% at the interim as the new product started to kick in, albeit still a minority of sales. (I've just guessed 75% for the second half FY24 below). There do seem to be about $9m of cash costs when I look back at FY22 and that matches with $4.5m in the interim report. So I'm not sure how they get to guidance of breakeven cash flow at $10m of revenue. In the table below, I've reduced costs a little (perhaps some non cash) and used 80% gross margin to get to breakeven at $10m revenue.
Anyway, best guesses in the table. Will be bit clearer again when they report.
| YE March | 1st Half | 2nd Half | FY24 | Run Rate | Breakeven |
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| 1 | $(000's) | Actual | Forecast | Forecast | Mar-24 | |
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| 2 | Revenue | 1,546 | 3,063 | 4,609 | 7,750 | 10,000 |
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| 3 | COGS | 507 | 766 | 1,273 | 1,744 | 2,000 |
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| 4 | GP | 1,039 | 2,297 | 3,336 | 6,006 | 8,000 |
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| 5 |
| 67.2% | 75.0% | 72.4% | 77.5% | 80.0% |
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| 6 | Expenses | 4,528 | 4,528 | 9,056 | 8,000 | 8,000 |
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| 7 | EBITDA | -3,489 | -2,231 | -5,720 | -1,994 | 0 |
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