Forecasts and Revisionist RubbishWhen i looked to do some basic forecasts, or more accurately extrapolations, I noticed that I had referred to $9m of cash costs last year. Not sure where I got that from (apologies to the ghost). Its more like $7.3m, before listing costs. (I think I'd used the $7m figure earlier). There's also $385m of D&A in that FY23 number, so I will switch to calling my numbers EBIT. EBIT is probably a pretty good proxy for cash flow with capex being around that D&A level (FY23 capex was $200k). Like many of these tech companies, they tend to expense most of development costs. Anyway, half year costs were still with $4.5m, without details given, so total costs somewhere between $7m and $9m. I will stick with $9m for FY24 forecast.
Anyway, table below assumes continue to add $750k net ARR per month. Hopefully in real life, something more exciting happens with new product developments.
| YE March |
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|
| 1 | $(000's) |
| Actual | Forecast |
|
|
|---|
| 2 | Revenue |
| 1,431 | 4,609 | 11,438 | 20,437 |
|---|
| 3 | COGS |
| 730 | 1,273 | 2,859 | 5,109 |
|---|
| 4 | GP |
| 701 | 3,336 | 8,578 | 15,328 |
|---|
| 5 |
|
| 49.0% | 72.4% | 75.0% | 75% |
|---|
| 6 | Expenses |
| 7,330 | 9,056 | 8,000 | 8,000 |
|---|
| 7 | EBIT |
| -6,629 | -5,720 | 578 | 7,328 |
|---|
