* BUMP *FWIW below are estimated Kalkaroo NPV11 matrix tables,...

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Guerilla

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22/04/24

09:00

Post #: 73449769
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Originally posted by Guerilla: ↑

'Copper at US$15,000 a Ton Is Needed to Spur New Mines, Says Friedland'

Despite Friedland's conviction, whether the Cu price hits those heights remains to be seen. Whales motivated to keep the Cu price lower, say China, may seek to ensure Friedland's target isn't achieved.

The latest publicly available NPV analysis for the Kalkaroo project was contained in BDO's Independent Expert's Report dated 19 July 2022 (see from page 35 of pdf at Post #: 62804086).

FWIW for every 10% increase in the Cu price assumption, BDO's Kalkaroo project NPV increases by ~ A$160 million. At US$15,000/t, the NPV increases by around A$1 billion.

Some relevant extracts FYI:

BDO foreign exchange, gold and copper price assumptions:

BDO Sensitivity analysis:

Other +/- considerations:

+ Au and A$ are currently tracking above US$2,000/oz and below US$0.70 respectively.

+ BHP/OZL testing indicated there to be 20% more Au than what HAV reported.

+ BHP study program potentially extends the open pit mine life to > 20 years.

- BDO assumed an annual Australian inflation rate of 3%. Current inflation is running above 3% and would likely add to Opex and Capex costs.

DYOR

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* BUMP *

FWIW below are estimated Kalkaroo NPV₁₁ matrix tables, basis BDO's July 2022 Independent Expert's Report, using the Cu, Au and FX price sensitivities set out in that report, at AUD:USD FX rates of 0.75, 0.70 and 0.65 respectively.

E&OE

If Friedland and others are right regarding the Cu price required to incentivise developers (up to US$15k/t), it would seem the Kalkaroo deal on the table for the next 2-3 weeks is relatively good value i.e. a total potential consideration of A$405m. Time will tell whether any of the interested parties are willing to get ahead of the curve.

DYOR

HAV Price at posting: 19.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

2 Great analysis

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