Based on current spot prices revenue should be about 6% higher than the DFS based on the then assumed metal prices. ASIC of $7.3 was less than 1/3 of Ag Eq price of about $23. To achieve the same profitability as in the DFS (ie metal prices less ASIC) based on current spot metal prices the ASIC could be higher by 20% ie $8.76 Ag Eq.
In the DFS they were going to generate $US200m pa (ie a bit over $A300m pa) in free cash flow after tax. Unless costs are more than 20% above the ASIC of $7.30 from the DFS then ADT should be on track to achieve this level of cash flow unless metal prices drop or production is less than anticipated in 2025 and subsequent 4 years. If metal prices move higher in 2025 than current spot prices the $US200m a free cash flow could be exceeded.
A 20% increase in ASIC provides a decent margin or error for inflation since the DFS and maybe the cost increase above the DFS will be less than 20%.
If free cash flow of $A300m is achieved then the forward PE is about 5. Cheap as chips if they meet production levels and costs are not more than 20% above the DFS assumptions at current metal prices.
Ag spot is 14% above DFS assumption, Zn is 5% lower, Pb is 4% lower, Au is 32% higher while Cu is 3% higher.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- Ann: Corporate Update
Based on current spot prices revenue should be about 6% higher...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 23 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add ADT (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
$3.98 |
Change
-0.030(0.75%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.113B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$4.02 | $4.05 | $3.96 | $727.5K | 182.3K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 4405 | $3.97 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$3.98 | 2288 | 8 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
6 | 22325 | 3.960 |
15 | 12751 | 3.950 |
7 | 8893 | 3.940 |
9 | 19890 | 3.930 |
9 | 7014 | 3.920 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
3.970 | 930 | 3 |
3.980 | 5276 | 10 |
3.990 | 5141 | 11 |
4.000 | 4862 | 12 |
4.010 | 41349 | 17 |
Last trade - 10.37am 04/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
|
|||||
Last
$3.93 |
  |
Change
-0.030 ( 1.98 %) |
|||
Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
$4.02 | $4.04 | $3.93 | 26309 | ||
Last updated 10.55am 04/06/2024 ? |
Featured News
ADT (ASX) Chart |