Based on current spot prices revenue should be about 6% higher...

Based on current spot prices revenue should be about 6% higher than the DFS based on the then assumed metal prices. ASIC of $7.3 was less than 1/3 of Ag Eq price of about $23. To achieve the same profitability as in the DFS (ie metal prices less ASIC) based on current spot metal prices the ASIC could be higher by 20% ie $8.76 Ag Eq.

In the DFS they were going to generate $US200m pa (ie a bit over $A300m pa) in free cash flow after tax. Unless costs are more than 20% above the ASIC of $7.30 from the DFS then ADT should be on track to achieve this level of cash flow unless metal prices drop or production is less than anticipated in 2025 and subsequent 4 years. If metal prices move higher in 2025 than current spot prices the $US200m a free cash flow could be exceeded.

A 20% increase in ASIC provides a decent margin or error for inflation since the DFS and maybe the cost increase above the DFS will be less than 20%.

If free cash flow of $A300m is achieved then the forward PE is about 5. Cheap as chips if they meet production levels and costs are not more than 20% above the DFS assumptions at current metal prices.

Ag spot is 14% above DFS assumption, Zn is 5% lower, Pb is 4% lower, Au is 32% higher while Cu is 3% higher.