I did my own DCF calculation with the (imho very conservative) price forecasts from Macquarie until 2027, the forecasted production volumes from the Allkem strategy presentation from April until 2026, the information on costs from the annual report and just extrapolated them (admittedly not very precise method, but average sales prices and production volume are what matters most), used 33 % profit tax (30 % corporate tax in Australia and 35 % in Argentina, maybe there will be a different tax rate for James Bay in Canada), and an 8 % discount rate, didn't take Naraha or any growth after 2026 into account (Olaroz stage 3 for example)
Since it is not an exact calculation I won't post my result here yet, maybe later when I have put more time and information into it I could post an excel sheet.
But what I can say is that I think that the recent price target from Canaccord Genuity of 21.30 AUD is absolutely reasonable. My own result is a bit higher and this represents the current fair value according to my DCF calculation. But again, this result does not include Naraha and does not include any production volume growth after 2026. So the fair value is probably even higher.
