"He was a little confusing in that in a separate section talking about the expected drop off in ViraDX sales due to the US flu season ending now, he mentioned he expects sales of ViraDX to increase again "next flu season, around September", so there is a lack of clarity around what he considers a flu season, is it twice a year for ViraDX but yearly as far as FebriDX is concerned?"Basically our winter period here would be a drop off in US sales of Viradx and Febridx however there would still be some residual sales of product occurring. The revenue simply wont be circa $700KUSD these coming quarters as it would be summer period, however likely to pick back up in the December quarter and Feb Quarters and this could also show an increase in product sales given a full quarter / year of product in the US market.
"A bit of a reality check, as Doug makes clear that the big step change opportunity is CLIA waiver for FebriDX, that the FDA approval process will mean designing a trial this year, for approval to start trial "next flu season" (2025), with hoped for successful results meaning the waiver be achieved for the "season after that, 2026"."The "next flu season" would be September to Feb 2024-25, so end of this year. Hence the article from https://www.lis tcorp.com/publisher/foster-stockbroking/hologic-enables-maiden-net-free-cash-flow-3024654.html which indicates the September trial period. I now read this (after watching the above video) that the trial has been determined, initial patients GPs will use the product throughout the next flu season, FDA will assess results and likely issue CLIA waiver in the following year 2025.
I would be surprised if the waiver isn't issued given the Febridx test is not too dissimilar from other blood testing which is done via Pathology groups in AUS like a diabetes text etc. The difference is this is basically a RAT test via blood. Not hard to use or figure out.
"Seems to me bottom drawer it, and forget about it for a year and half, or sell out now and take the hit if you are hoping for any substantial share price boost in the short term. Ain't gonna happen."I wouldn't think this. Australia distribution of product on the cards as they mentioned they were in discussions with major Aus distributors as well as other US major players. If the Aus deal comes to fruition soon, we might see the product in the hands of Australian punters this winter period = more revenue.
We also have the FFN product in development stage and updates on testing etc expected this CY.
Not to discredit any new manufacturing agreements could come to fruition this year also for other tests as well as licencing of the reader platforms.
Many positives to come over the next 12 months which could support re rate (which isn't hard given current share price).
I think if the SP was stable above .09c, people would be a lot more comfortable. The CR at .07c really put a damper on support at this point - part of the reason I emailed today around the management direct share purchase idea to insight confidence back into the market also.
(20min delay)
