JRV 6.25% 1.7¢ jervois global limited

How can one value a company that isn't generating any cash and...

  1. 1,448 Posts.
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    How can one value a company that isn't generating any cash and is so highly geared?

    That's the problem with debt - it imposes harsh realities - made even harsher when they need to tap shareholder equity to service the debt, rather than cash generated by the business (they can't generate cash - as they are incompetent).

    The question then is two-fold - what value to place on their assets in this current environment & whether any suitor would pay several times the total market cap of the business for said assets?

    The cobalt inventory is relatively easy to work out. Not quite enough to eliminate the Mercuria debt, but close enough.

    Speculating here, however, one would think they are looking to sell their 40% share of Kokkola. And you would think that they would be wanting circa US$100m to retire the US$100m debt (with the bondholders approval).

    The debt covenant waiver is either because they are close to breaching their debt covenant now - or they anticipate breaking it at the end of June/early July and are buying time to finalise any deal.

    The issue here is Jervois' weak negotiating position - something Bryce touched on last year when he implied that the deals they were working on were unsatisfactory - given their weakened financial position. The raise & Aussie Super con notes were to buy them time (a 12-month runway) and indicate to predatory opportunists that the business was well-supported at the institutional level and wouldn't entertain any low-ball offers. Here we now - with the company in an even weaker position than last year and sans any sort of deal. Why would any suitor offer several times the total market cap of the business for Kokkola when they could just take out the business for much less?

    The answer to your question, therefore, is "no" - I do not think this business is fairly valued right now (this is not to be read as suggesting I value the business higher - I don't). Not with US$169.1m in debt, inventory not quite covering the Mercuria facility, dwindling cash, non-ownership of the SMP (payment still outstanding on this), inability to monetise and divest of Nico-Young, ICO on C&M and not a chance of coming online (possibly ever - unless the USG back up their rhetoric re: supply chain security - which I have now concluded will never happen under the Dems) & an asset in Kokkola, which Umicore can make work under various cobalt price scenarios, but Jervois can't.

    Re: your averaging down strategy to minimise losses. I am employing the same strategy with one of my copper plays and it seems to be working so far. Bringing my average down, while the SP has doubled in a month. I am not averaging down here, though, as I feel I am just magnifying my losses - as the SP continues to drop. IF they manage to survive, I think there will be plenty of opportunities to pick up some cheap shares and then apply the same strategy before I exit. Then again, this business could very well go under and soon. Sadly, I no longer believe anything management have to say.
    Last edited by Deme: 09/05/24
 
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