17thApril 2024Wednesday In anupcoming financial announcement...

17^thApril 2024

Wednesday

In anupcoming financial announcement expected to significantly influence marketmovements, Great Britain is set to release its latest Consumer Price Index(CPI) figures today. The year-over-year data is keenly awaited by investors asit provides a crucial measure of inflation, which is central to economic andmonetary policy decisions. Following this key economic release, attention willshift to the U.S. as the Crude Oil Inventories report is also scheduled to bepublished. This report, which tracks the changes in the number of barrelsstored, is vital for assessing the balance of supply and demand in the oilmarket and could further sway market sentiment.

GBP – CPI y/y

The UnitedKingdom's Consumer Price Index (CPI), crucial for measuring consumer priceinflation, is predominantly influenced by Transport, Housing & Utilities,Recreation & Culture, and Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages categories.Released monthly by the Office for National Statistics, this key inflationdata, reflecting changes in the price of goods and services, plays a vital rolein government targets and the Bank of England's monetary policy, impacting thevaluation of the Pound Sterling. High CPI readings suggest inflationarypressures, potentially leading to interest rate hikes, while low readings mayindicate the opposite.

Inflation hadtaken a step back, offering some relief to consumers. The latest figuresrevealed that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation,increased by 3.4% in the year leading up to February 2024. This marked adecrease from the 4.0% rise noted in January, and significantly lower than thestaggering 11.1% peak witnessed in October 2022 - the highest in over fourdecades. Notably, this recent annual rate was the most moderate since September2021, when inflation stood at 3.1%, hinting at a potential easing of thecost-of-living pressures that had been felt by many.

TL;DR

• CPI increased by 3.4% year-on-year as of February 2024.
• This rate is a decrease from 4.0% in January.
• It's significantly lower than the 11.1% peak in October 2022.
• Lowest annual rate since September 2021's 3.1%.
• Indicates easing of recent cost-of-living pressures.

The forecast for the CPI y/y isprojected at 3.1%, compared to the previous outcome of 3.4%.

The next upcoming CPI y/y is set tobe released on Wednesday at 6:00 AM GMT.

The last time,the US CPI y/y was announced on the20^th of March, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart (GBPUSD M5) below:

USD - Crude Oil Inventories

The Crude Oil Inventoriesreport, which measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of crude oilheld by commercial firms, serves as a crucial indicator for market analysts andtraders. Commonly referred to as Crude Stocks or Crude Levels, this report isparticularly significant for the Canadian dollar due to Canada's large energysector. A key barometer of supply and demand imbalances, the report influencesproduction adjustments and can lead to notable price volatility. Typically,when the actual inventory decrease is greater than forecasted, it is viewed aspositive for the currency, reflecting a potential uptick in demand or adecrease in supply.

Last week, U.S.commercial crude oil inventories experienced a significant increase, rising by5.8 million barrels to reach 457.3 million barrels, according to the latestWeekly Petroleum Data for the week ending April 5, 2024. This figure notablysurpassed the expected increase of 688,000 barrels. Additionally, there werefluctuations in other petroleum products: gasoline inventories rose by 715,000barrels, despite projections of a 1.84 million barrel decrease, whiledistillate fuel stocks also grew by 1.66 million barrels, contrary toexpectations of a 977,000 barrel decline. Refinery operations slowed, withcrude oil inputs dropping to 15.8 million barrels per day and operating at88.3% capacity. Gasoline production decreased, averaging 9.4 million barrelsper day, whereas distillate fuel production saw an increase, averaging 4.6million barrels per day. Meanwhile, crude oil imports fell slightly to anaverage of 6.4 million barrels per day. Over the last four weeks, overallpetroleum demand showed a slight decline of 0.4% from the previous year, withspecific drops in motor gasoline and distillate fuel supply, offset by a 3.5%increase in jet fuel supply compared to the same period last year.

TL;DR

• U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 5.8 million barrels to 457.3 million.
• This increase was significantly above the expected 688,000 barrels.
• Gasoline inventories rose by 715,000 barrels, against a forecasted 1.84 million barrel drop.
• Distillate fuel stocks grew by 1.66 million barrels, despite an expected decline of 977,000 barrels.
• Refinery operations reduced; crude inputs fell to 15.8 million barrels per day at 88.3% capacity.
• Gasoline production down to 9.4 million barrels per day; distillate production up at 4.6 million barrels per day.
• Crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day.
• Overall petroleum demand decreased by 0.4% year-over-year; jet fuel supply rose by 3.5%.

The forecast for the US Crude Oil Inventories is reading an increase of 1,600,000 barrels.

The next Crude Oil Inventories isscheduled for release on Wednesday at 2:30 PM GMT.