What we can infer from the chart
1. Bulk of the EV sales are in China, but even EV sales in China struggled since the start of 2024, which explains all the price slashing by Chinese EV makers
So bulk of lithium demand is still coming from China and will remain so for some years
2. EV sales momentum has stalled in US and EU, which explains why Tesla is shedding staff, reconsidering business model and US/EU legacy auto makers deferring their original targeted timeframe to move totally into EV, and UK Govt extending timeframe to phase out ICE vehicles
3. The struggling EV growth trend isn't improving anytime soon, with higher for longer interest rates, auto loan delinquencies and deteriorating consumer spending capacity providing strong headwinds ahead.
When ALB decided to wind back expansion, reduce capex, undertake large layoffs and raise large capital, that reflects their internal forecast/projection to prepare for a more protracted winter hibernation and certainly not a transitory situation re: lithium demand.
