Probably best discussed on those forums. I probably shouldn't have posted my initial comment on here in reflection either. Though for transparency i will answer. I would potentially speculate 5% of folio at 5.5c-6.5c. The biggest risk for VML is that there is no formalised studies for either stage 1 or stage 2.
Stage 1 is their 10% grade using basic ore sorting tech and then their offtake partner separates it and they have a joint profit arrangement. This is a very good offtake arrangement btw, however, because there is 0 detail on the AISC of both VML's operation and REEtec there is no way to know if it's profitable or how profitable. The other risk is that stage 2 which is their 1.5% grade resource will not lend itself to the same process circuitry. i.e. 1.5% will not turn into 40%. Additionally mining costs will be 6 times higher due to lower feed grade to produce same output p/a.
Therefore they will probably need to finance through further capital and build a more complex plant (if viable at all) noting lynas mine 7-8% grade, and then they may be able to bring it up to a higher % before selling to REEtec. (PM8 purports its viable from that kind of feedgrade but BFS has been delayed and the angle changed from PFS now looking for a seperation plant, so the jury is still out on someone making a sub 3% feed grade economically viable. For context, REEtec could probably separate out a very low concentrate but the cost in doing so probably makes it unviable when you consider VML's opex to produce it.
The only reason/relevance to my comment was such that holders here can see that CR's whilst the price is running is completely normal/typical. And in turn that any comment that management is doing the wrong thing by striking whilst the iron is hot is fairly well baseless. It's also worth being aware of the intricacies outside of the stock one holds as well, but for me i prefer IXR as economically it's margin will mean it's profitable, significantly profitable. Secondly formalised studies are being compiled and going through a professional route to show economic viability.
I'm not saying VML won't succeed or isn't a good venture (i have said i would buy if cheap enough) but personally prefer formalised studies to at least be in the works. VML's fully diluted MC @ 8c is 360M which is a little rich for my blood when considering 1000tpa will be max throughput for stage 1 whereby annualise revenue is 50-60M. Then need to deduct AISC of VML and REEtec for profit. divide by 2. Good going if they can lock 20m in profit P/A but it's really a complete guess for investors at current with no information about opex costs for either operation. Anyways people can read my posts on those threads to discuss further or tag me there to here my thoughts and i apologise for discussion somewhat at length here but feel the points remain relevant when looking for some sort of peer analysis.
Finally re-iterating that raising cash whilst your price is booming is how you lessen dilution and ultimate secure maximum funds. Unless you have free-cash flow to fund projects you need to raise capital. You're best option is when the price is high. People always want SPP, but typically when raising large funds SPP is a high risk raise. If it's not supported (and people will all say they will support) then you can raise large sum's of money. there's validity in comments relating to maximum funds being able to be raised annually. Like it or big money is what gets the project over the line. retail benefits by it happening. That's the game, just need to learn the rules and exploit to your advantage.
*disclosure again i don't hold VML so i'm not cross promoting.
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