General Discussion, page-1177

Here are a few key points, imo, paraphrased from his commentary:

1/ capital intensity has increased significantly in the past decade; current yardstick for South America is circa $25k per tonne-capacity of LCE. (i.e. circa $250M per 10ktpa capacity)

2/ conversion plant / cathode plant etc in Europe might cost circa 2.5-3x what it costs in China

3/ the pricing “cycle” resets are bringing higher lows and higher highs

4/ if a 40% yoy increase in demand is a bad year, I’d hate to see what a good year looks like

5/ there is no singular lithium price; prices vary considerably depending on many factors (yes we all know this but some seem to forget!)

6/ the vast majority of Li is not exchange traded , it is bilaterally negotiated, bought and sold

7/ for the cost of a car, or even less, you could probably move the futures on a quiet day by a few hundred basis points - that is the level of potential for manipulation of futures pricing

8/ price discovery requires looking much deeper than what price-reporting agencies publish… e.g customs data etc

Also note - this pricing commentary starts at about 1:50:00 in the video.


Very interesting indeed!


Imo
Dyor