1. sm...all.caps.com.au 9.5.24 Colin Hay quoted experts IEA,...

1. sm...all.caps.com.au 9.5.24 Colin Hay quoted experts IEA, UNCTAD, Statista, Shanghai Metal Markets, & the Office Of Australia's Chief Economist.
They all said they expect massive rises in Li demand (with demand to double by 2030, cf 2025. NB not thepriceof Li; & in the decades from 2030, to 2050).

Shanghai Metal Markets also "...predicted a lithium price recovery, averaging around $45,000 (US, or AUD?- my words) per metric ton, from 2023- 2030...".

Hay said

"While lithium prices are currently down from where they were in 2022, a number of experts are forecasting dramatic increases in demand for this critical battery metal.

Using data obtained from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the UN Trade & Development (UNCTAD) projects that lithium demand could rise by more than 1,500% between now and 2050.

UNCTAD says to achieve global 2030 net-zero emission targets, the lithium mining industry will need 70 new mines.

Elsewhere, Statista is forecasting global demand for lithium in 2030 to surpass 2.4 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), doubling the demand forecast for 2025.

Leading this surge will be increases in battery use for electric vehicles (EVs), with demand expected to reach 3.8Mt by 2035.

Dynamic market

Shanghai Metals Markets is also bullish.

Their new report “Key Trends in Lithium Prices: A Comprehensive Analysis” says the metal is expected to see a surge in demand, also projecting over 2.4Mt of LCE by 2030.

Shanghai Metals Markets also pointed to technological advancements in battery production and the growing role of batteries in renewable energy as key factors influencing the lithium market.

It noted that the Australian lithium market, influenced by Chinese supply chains and the IEA’s forecast for battery demand growth, highlight the market’s dynamic nature.

“Future lithium demand is anticipated to increase, driven by EV battery demand, with a potential reach of 3.8Mt by 2035,” the report said...

"Experts predict a lithium price recovery, averaging around $45,000 (my emphasis) per metric ton from 2023 to 2030, aligning with the expected demand surge.”...

"EV sales in China surged during 2023 with penetration in China’s passenger vehicle market rising by 9.5% over the year to reach 35%.

Wood Mackenzie estimates that EV penetration in the global passenger vehicle market rose from 4.5% in 2020 to 18% in 2023.

Local production

The office of Australia’s Chief Economist recently reported that global lithium demand is expected to more

than double between 2023 and 2029, driven by the rising adoption of EVs".

New study claims lithium demand could soar more than 1,500% by 2050 (*********.com.au)

(In URL, insert "sm.allcaps.com.au", to open link fully).


2. At c. 12.50 pm 20.5.24, the ASX All Ordinaries was up c.0.6%, & Materials up c.2%.

Aust. Fin Review C. Lefort 19.5.24, echoing some other experts, said

"The Australian sharemarket will test its record high (my emphases) this week, following in the footsteps of the Dow Jones Industrial Average making Wall Street history by crossing 40,000 points.

Renewed optimism that interest rate cuts are on the way and the global economy has nailed a soft landing thanks to robust corporate earnings has offset the toll of higher borrowing costs and sticky inflation.

Futures indicate the S&P/ASX 200 will gain 0.5 per cent, or 35 points on Monday after the index advanced 0.8 per cent last week. On Thursday, it reset an intraday record of 7910.5 points after the jobless rate rose more than expectedto 4.1 per cent, fuelling bets the Reserve Bank will turn to easing to support a slowing economy.

The benchmark sits just 82 points or 1 per cent away from a record closing level of 7896.4 points set on March 28.

All three major US indices reset records last week while benchmarks in Japan, Europe, and Canada climbed near their historical peaks. The S&P 500 was up 0.1 per cent and the Nasdaq slipped 0.1 per cent in the closing session".

Australian shares: ASX eyes record high on global stock euphoria and Dow at 40,000 (copyright link)

(Insert "AFR" in URL, to open link)