Hedging, page-2

the only hedge that had any meaningful gain was the final top of the gold run, howeever it was also the exact start of the XGD bear market, so i dont really think its relevant unless you consiously intend to hold forever including through sector bear markets. thats being said, it would be relevant in terms of profit / dividends to large holders like GMcG who wouldnt trading at all.

ive recorded the 91 day and 182 day moving averages to get an average spot price for 3 and 6 months after the start of each window

this is assuming the most generous circumstance that nostradamus could pick to the very dollar of the top of each run.

Pivot 1: 3 month -8.50 6 month -62.50
Pivot 2: 3 month +66 6 month -59
Pivot 3: 3 month -88 6 month -138
Pivot 4: 3 month +137 6 month -17

2 out of 8 secenarios of picking the absolute perfect top worked, as Braunie has illustraded many times to us, picking perfect tops to hedge at is virtually impossible, even when making a new guess every $50 higher

hedging in a bull market is like going to the pokies and expecting to make money