The pointy end of the stick
Now at the end of the first week in Feb, its time for a fresh look at the progress of the last few weeks. Prior analysis available at bottom of this post.
Monthly
I hadn't pulled up the month chart for a long time so I thought it may be worth a look to see if it tells us anything. Pleasantly surprised was my reaction. If you have read my analysis for a while, you would know that the larger the time frame, the more weight the information carries. A monthly chart is looking right at the overall affect on the price that the fundamentals have. PD1, Azercel, cf33 - all of it and more - Covid, Ukraine, Israel, inflation. Throw all of that stuff into a cement mixer with Imugene, and the monthly chart shows the mess that comes out the other side each step of the way. We had our spectacular rise to asx200 fame in brief period off the back of the company fundamentals, easily seen on the chart below, on its left rising to 0.625. Then the international downturn and horrors of recent years seen falling off on our right. Those macro fundamentals were far to strong to allow any breathing room to give our local Imugene fundamentals any chance, despite them being positive one after the other. How far can the stock fall was the question? Technically to zero, and then further with a consolidation.
But we found a bottom at 4c following a fantastic opportunity for retail in a questionable CR. You might not have liked it, but it was a no brainier to participate. Money for jam. Since then things seem to be calming down a little, or at least we can say that the macros that were formerly steering the ship are having a lesser impact now. One could hardly say that the world is calming down. In addition, we have had fantastic first news on cf33, an acquisition in Azercel and a manufacturing facility to boot. How have these events been received? The right hand side shows it stopped our fall dead cold, and even reverse it, at least to the extent that we can see on the chart being Feb 9.
For those wondering why we are struggling to push through the 13 - 15 area time and again, behold! The e21. The big boy road block, the monthly e21(yellow). I spoke earlier of the need to turn these large time frame MA's before any major run up will take place (of course with the exception of fundamental surprises). This is the one that matters most. You can see from our peak that it doesn't need to take long, it just needs a few convincing spikes and that will be enough. Price was able to push through after just 4 bars/months, followed by testing it (e21) as resistance and continuing its southbound run. We are in our 4th bar/month from the bottom and our e21 is shallowing. It's also worth noting that the w5 needs to have quite a steep approach angle to be able to push through it, which we have atm. A couple of good runs and solid candles/months and the e21 will be a wonder working for us instead of holding back our every attempt as at the present time.
Pleasantly surprised? Check out that divergence - ridiculous. I cannot perceive the effect that a monthly divergence of this magnitude will exert on a bull run under the right fundamental circumstances. Whether you draw it from the 2 bases on the MACD, or the two dips on the price does not matter both are bullish divergence as shown in pink. When this starts to run, buckle up, it will make financial headlines on and off for months imo. Remember those huge moves when we licensed cf33, we ran up to 6c from 2.5 or so, and back and forth etc for a while. It was a big deal, and it looked like it on the chart too. Those are the little bumps that you see on the left side of the chart(blue circle). Our next major bull run is going to make this former run to 62.5 look like one of those little bumps in comparison. It should not need to be said, but as a reminder this is a monthly chart. These things take months to play out. But we are looking for the long term view right?
WeeklyLooking at the weekly now which we are a little more familiar with, we see recent events since the CR. Our current and main focus is on the large candle spike to the left, this gives us our technical target for the first major fib move since our downturn. I welcome the return of sanity to the technicals. Last week we closed on the 10c level. For those wondering why it is such a psychological barrier, it's because it is the price where buyers and sellers change from paying increments of 1/10th of a cent per share to paying 1/2 a cent per share. Hovering around this level is quite normal for any stock - it took 4 months last time before it ran. And once it was freed from the shackles, it ran hard. So last week's close was not a surprise, and we closed on the right side of it, that is coming from above. A win for the bulls. So this week, a Friday close under the 10c would have been a decent win for the bears, however we closed up a pip at 0.105 printing a nice little bit of green.
More telling for me however, was the midweek spike that tagged the yellow e21 - a perfect retest and bounce off it. Every time the price does that and the e21 maintains a decent slope, it adds more bull strength to it we benefit from as support. To be fair, the upper wicks over the last few weeks are ugly, we don't want to see that sort of thing, however as stated on the monthly, the e21 very easily accounts for this type of price action. It exerts a huge influence, so it's nice to see the bulls not letting up on giving it a crack. Try to visualise the wedge between the monthly e21 (approximately the e100 blue) and the weekly e21, with the monthly being more powerful and exerting influence at distance. That's our upper and lower bounds. Green w5 has started to flatten out again also, we should expect a positive sloped w5 over the next bar or two imo. Volumes haven't been very exciting, but that's the season. It should start to pick up and get more interesting. Keep in mind though that while everything looks good for a run, and the charts here indicate it is a high probability event, we are unwinding from a huge bear run and those large TF moving averages still have a little way to go before they are neutral. At present they support the bears.
DailyMoving to the daily now we see there is also bullish divergence. This will give us some horses for the smaller runs we spoke about in the monthly section. e55(cyan) is close to crossing the e200(red). Blue e100 has increased in steepness which is bullish, and the green and yellows are also presently positive. I dropped a fib on this one for curiosities sake - we have a double close on the 61.8 at 0.105 which would indicate that the D1 target is 0.135 if it bounces here. If I traded IMU(I don't), this would be one I'd jump in as well, however as we already have hypothetical 3 units open for the same move I won't record it below. If I wasn't in already, my stop would be at 10c nice and tight with a target of 13.5 but willing to take 13 on any hesitation. I probably would not buy at 11 though, that's a R:R of only 1:2.5 and imo nowhere near high enough. An entry at 10.5 however gives a R:R of 1:6(0.5:3)which is significantly better. A bit of fun if you can get it or already got it again today.
NOTE: There is an extremely strong bear signal on standby here, if it happens it's a high probability that we will go lower, however I feel that the odds of this happening are low, but it needs to be pointed out. If you have read these analyses in the past you would note the emphasis I place on the red e200 repulsing the blue e100 away again, and the spectacular moves that can follow. This is a double edge sword, because it can happen on the downside as well. We definitely do not want to see the green w5 cross back down under the blue e100 if the red turns the blue back south. If that happens, I'll continue to hold my investment but I wouldn't be in a trade.
All in all I think this week has been a positive one. While there is still definite downside risk to moving lower again, it is my opinion that the probability lies to the upside. If I'm perfectly honest, while I would be pretty happy to finally see some big bulls grab this and run, I really am quite content for us to sit right where we are in this range - let's turn some large MA slopes and compress that spring a little tighter as we edge out to the pointy end of the stick.
Open |
Win |
LossSwing trade #1 [ In 0.085-0.09 || TP 0.22 || SL 0.077 ]Initial analysis here (29/11)Update #3 here (19/01)Interim update (25/01)[In1 0.105, In2 0.096 || TP 0.145-0.150 || SL 0.094]Update #4 here (09/02)
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