There’s a lot of misleading stuff from Mike Wilson here.
First of all, one shouldn’t look at the evolution of earnings estimates in any given calendar year because analysts are notoriously overoptimistic.
This means that even in good times, earning estimates usually fall. That’s why most people look at 12-month forward estimates. In level terms, they tend to be biased upwards, but in rate of change terms, they are not. And as the chart below shows, they have been rising not falling.
Second of all, earnings tend to lag stock prices. Thus, it is not correct to say that the stock rally will end when profits dip. Stocks will drop well before analysts start cutting earnings estimates.
