agree with your comments.The lithium market is very small, very...

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calmbeforestorm

5,076 Posts.

2083

07/02/24

20:23

Post #: 72292142
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Originally posted by dawgfather: ↑

Some of the forecasts lately are laughable. By the way BoA also forecast oversupply during the run up to $8000/t SC6 pricing.

Most forecasters are reactive - they watch the lithium price swing wildly and just react to what they’re seeing. I don’t think a single forecaster predicted $900/t spod in this timeframe but now that we are here, they’ve all suddenly changed their forecasts to uber bearish pricing.

Im not aware of a single forecaster that could be considered reliable when it comes to lithium pricing over the next 12-24 months. The market for lithium is incredibly new and immature and no one really knows how pricing will react to any level of accuracy.

at $650/t, I’m not sure any mines around the world would even be open apart from Greenbushes. Every other Australian mine would be loss making. It doesn’t take much brain power to realise that all of that supply going offline would probably send prices back to where we were when pricing got silly above $3,000/t.

As far as I’m aware I believe most long term forecasts still roughly support the LRS PEA assumption of $1,699/t. (Roughly, meaning +/- 20%). As an example - Euroz Hartley’s long term SC6 price currently sits at $1,625/t. This obviously differs enormously from Wood Mac who single handedly demolished LTR’s funding arrangements by putting out a long term forecast of $950/t. Btw if you want access to this ‘expert’ report - you will need to pay $5,000 for the privilege.

Putting out crazy price forecasts - then using the attention to sell reports that were likely written by a junior analyst for $5k. Great business.

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agree with your comments.

The lithium market is very small, very little is sold on the spot market, lithium is not yet a commodity making pricing very very volatile. It makes very good trade in lithium stocks but they need to be quality lithium stocks and LRS is one of a very few with quality. Others are AZS, PMT, PLS and LTR. DLI and WC8 are not yet quality while WR1 is borderline. The rest are just rubbish (my comments are limited to stocks on ASX),

These are my views so feel free to disagree.

LRS Price at posting: 16.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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