Thanks for your thoughtful reply. The only thing I would guess differently is what would happen if Russia failed to stop the US/NATO.
I think it's likely that Russia has already confirmed with the US that it would detonate several small nuclear warheads inside Ukraine in relatively innocuous locations if it were in danger of defeat. And if that scenario occurred Russia would just do it without further warning.
THEN the US would shut down the war. That would of course make it easier politically for the US to stop the war on the basis that everyone was then fearing an escalation to Armageddon, as opposed to weakly giving in to a Russian bluff.
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