LTR 1.69% $1.16 liontown resources limited

Gina just gave $4.1m as a present to her staff via a luck draw....

  1. 34,315 Posts.
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    Gina just gave $4.1m as a present to her staff via a luck draw. She seems paying her staff well and treat them well. Why would key staff leave if she acquired?
    As a few small mines shut down, that would ease shortage of mining personnel.
    For example, CXO shut down the mine, those experienced lithium technicians are now working for LTR.

    Lithium spodumene mining is not hard anymore, does not like 7 years ago, as the world was only having one miner, Talison/Greenbushes. Over last few years, WA have developed additional SIX lithium spodumene mines, so mining lithium spodumene concentrates is no longer a bit issue, imo. Underground work is awarded to a renounced contractor, the difference between open bit and underground, open bit has initial strip cost, then low extract cost; underground, less waste tons as directly targeting feed ores. So just different way of extracting the feeding ores, no real new technicals involved. Just look at the pictures of the construction site, quality does look very good.

    EV growth is slowing. Yes growth RATE is slowing. Because the base of EV sales are getting higher and higher. And actual EV sales growth in number is higher each year.

    global-bev-phev-demand.png


    Lithium price has been smashed over 80%, definitely going to bounce hard. Just like iron ore during 2015/2016, when institutions predicted iron ore price would fall further after a 75% drop. But reality was obviously proved they are completely wrong. I was long FMG as well, was painful at that time.

    Screenshot 2024-02-10 165808.png

    I think I got in LTR for a similar reason, unfortunately I got in a bit higher, but you can't predict very short term price movement. The medium and long term view of LTR and lithium sector is very positive, as global EV growth is certain thanks to China pushing EV mass adoption. Also China faces a similar issue for lithium due to lack of quality economically EXTRACTABLE lithium projects. Don't forget China is now also very strict on environmental issues. Chinese lepidolite mines were temporarily shut down for environmental issues few times over last two years. High cost and environmental issues, depressed lithium price, those lepidolite projects are likely to shut down or partially closed. Just similar to low grade iron ore production in China, only be a portion of the total supply, will not be significant part.

    Back to Gina/Hancock, no one knows whether she will make an offer, at what price?
    But we know Gina made a joint bid for AZS (60% of Andover) after Chinese lithium price has been smashed over 80%; so she obviously does not care currently depressed lithium price; paying a very high price for AZS, valuing an early lithium project at a much higher valuation than LTR.

    Also, Gina made a $5B profit last year with cash on hand of $19.9B, probably another $5B profit is on the way as iron ore price is still well above US$100/t.
    She acquired 329m LTR shares at ~$3/share within 5 weeks just months ago. Why???

    If she were not interested in taking over of LTR, why would she request a board seat at LTR???
    Because if she is going to make an offer, she cannot have a board seat.

    Always DYOR. ALL IMO.
 
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