Analysis: Russia's predictable threat against Poland hosting...

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    Analysis: Russia's predictable threat against Poland hosting nuclear weapons must be put in context

    Poland's president Duda advised earlier this week that Poland would be prepared to host NATO nuclear weapons if required to strengthen the security of NATO's eastern flank following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

    Poland has historically been vulnerable to European wars, and has increased its defence budget dramatically in response to Russian aggression on the continent.

    Russia's deputy foreign minister responded in typically combative manner by stating that any NATO nuclear capability deployed into Poland would be targeted.

    However, Russia's threatening rhetoric needs to be placed in to context.

    Russia's unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine has raised the prospect of a wider European conflict and threatened European security.

    The NATO alliance provides strength in numbers, and Poland's number one priority will be the protection of its people.

    Had Ukraine not relinquished its nuclear weapons in return for guarantees of its territorial integrity - signed by Russia and USA - under the terms of the Budapest Memo in 1994, would Russia have invaded?

    Although modern nuclear weapon delivery systems do not need to be placed close to their intended targets - they can be fired thousands of miles - their forward deployment sends a powerful political message.

    President Putin announced his intention to forward deploy nuclear weapons into Belarus in June 2023, and that process was completed last month.

    This provocative initiative was deliberately designed to deter the West from increasing its support for Ukraine.

    So, Russia's entirely predictable response to the news that NATO might do the same by forward deploying nuclear weapons into Poland lacks a degree of credibility.

    Russia knows that if the West was to commit fully to Ukraine's defence, Russia would be unable to achieve its strategic objectives.

    Russian threatening rhetoric has - to date - tempered Western enthusiasm for engaging further, and we can expect more of the same over the coming weeks as Russia pursues its "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine.

 
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