A lot of volatility in the Oil price(OP).
Crashed below 70s in Jul23, only to bounce back to $97 in Sept23. At the time, most Instos were expecting the OP to hit $100 by the end of CY23. The BOD secured the deal on 1Oct23, at the top of the market.
Bloomberg forecasts suggest the OP is at its low now:
Taking up the Rights Issue @$2.05 should be a no brainer, if the OP is at the bottom.The SP seems harshly treated.
Who Dat new wells commence in Q4CY23 and Q1CY24, which should see our production upgraded there, from 4 to 4.5mbpa, upwards to 5 to 5.75mbpa for CY24.
Note the 4 to 4.5mbpa forecast is based on production up to 26Oct23.
Recent Bauna production flows have recovered to over 26kbpd. That's still 9.5mbpa but closer to 9mbpa given time off for maintenance. The revised production rate for Brazil in recent presentations for CY24 is 8 to 10mbpa.
Dr J says natural decline is 15%pa and life of production has been stretched to 2032. An extension to 2038 given a possible resource upgrade. FPSO lease renewal in 2028 and Neon development in the meantime.
Given the recently announced cuts in Oil production by OPEC, to commence 1Jan24 (and the extension of the Saudi cut until Q2CY24), is it unreasonable to expect the OP to surge from here?
NYMEX has been working overtime ... and coincidentally since we secured the GOM asset on 1Oct23. Talk about bad timing for us.
News of CTAs controlling the OP.
OPEC cuts supply and yet the OP still tanks. How's that possible? Perhaps because the cuts don't take place until 1Jan24?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oils-wild-ride-driven-disruptive-000002756.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMOTsjePTbtpTMmoeuvkIP-lvAQwiWs6GNJb2zV_5F6Xu3Ob1C3QRx8NvKlpisngm7DpY-aLPCwtsmwG3Z0J2WHZM-NX3uI88S9OJ20ZI2XEOtwAxi4Bz5c3FQ8BXh1PLlaONTuy0WhCOKUOoGdSYD6dzGQCke0vloufDpQ7IeUf%20%EF%BB%BF
A lot of volatility in the Oil price(OP).Crashed below 70s in...
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Last
$1.97 |
Change
0.075(3.96%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.578B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $1.92 | $1.98 | $1.92 | $19.69M | 10.05M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | 46000 | $1.97 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $1.98 | 71687 | 4 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 10/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
$1.98 |
Change
0.075 ( 4.29 %) |
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| Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
| $1.92 | $1.98 | $1.92 | 2305260 | ||
| Last updated 15.59pm 10/05/2024 ? | |||||
| KAR (ASX) Chart |