Target $18.72, page-9152

@Lord Bell
1. I disagree with your comment that "It has been calculated that China has 100 million more homes than needed" -although I agree that there have been various "China experts" who have made similar claims, of between 90m- 100m empty appartments.
The Chinese govt. & CCP etc. have never publicly never provided any formal precise, figure on the no. of completed, but empty, appartments that exist in China; &/or partially completed appartments.

Some experts, outside of China, have stated they believe the correct figure is much lower than 90- 100m - with some saying the figure could be as low as c.7m empty appartments.

I believe it would be mind-boggling & farcical if the Chinese govt. allowed a situation of c.100m empty appartments... a total waste of resources, that would lead to a massive property price collapse; & "smash" consumer confidence & spending for, possibly, 10 years +.ie a further huge setback for the economy.

Furthermore, I am guided by the considered views of the Reserve Bank analyst A. Baird who, 18.4.24, in his Abstract & Conclusion, said

"Conclusion

Weakness in the Chinese urban residential construction sector has persisted since 2021, and has significantly reduced the sector’s demand for steel. However, overall demand for steel has remained resilient due to recent growth in infrastructure and manufacturing investment. Investment growth in these sectors looks set to continue (all emphases, mine) in the near term, but there is considerable uncertainty around the long-term outlook for such investment. This uncertainty means the outlook for urban residential investment remains a key risk to the outlook for Chinese steel demand.

Projections to 2050 indicate that demand for urban residential construction in China has likely peaked. While some recovery in construction activity is likely in the near term (as current levels of construction have fallen below those estimates of demand), urban residential construction will likely continue to weigh on overall demand for steel in China".

Urban Residential Construction and Steel Demand in China | Bulletin – April 2024 | RBA
(Warning: Long Read)


2. At c. 12.50 pm 20.5.24, the ASX All Ordinaries was up c.0.6%, & Materials up c.2%.

Aust. Fin Review C. Lefort 19.5.24, echoing some other experts, said

"The Australian sharemarket will test its record high this week, following in the footsteps of the Dow Jones Industrial Average making Wall Street history by crossing 40,000 points.

Renewed optimism that interest rate cuts are on the way and the global economy has nailed a soft landing thanks to robust corporate earnings has offset the toll of higher borrowing costs and sticky inflation.

Futures indicate the S&P/ASX 200 will gain 0.5 per cent, or 35 points on Monday after the index advanced 0.8 per cent last week. On Thursday, it reset an intraday record of 7910.5 points after the jobless rate rose more than expectedto 4.1 per cent, fuelling bets the Reserve Bank will turn to easing to support a slowing economy.

The benchmark sits just 82 points or 1 per cent away from a record closing level of 7896.4 points set on March 28.

All three major US indices reset records last week while benchmarks in Japan, Europe, and Canada climbed near their historical peaks. The S&P 500 was up 0.1 per cent and the Nasdaq slipped 0.1 per cent in the closing session".

Australian shares: ASX eyes record high on global stock euphoria and Dow at 40,000 (copyright link)(Insert "AFR" in URL, to open link)