The Albanese government is in a mess: a legislative, policy, process, political and personnel mess.
Anthony Albanese, of course, denies there is a mess and is angered and frustrated by this description of his government, which was recovering from an end-of-year slump following the failed Indigenous voice referendum.
But the final parliamentary sitting days before the long pre-budget break have exposed serious problems for Labor. These include the Prime Minister having to assert himself over ministers, rising rivalries and tensions within cabinet, growing concern and resentment among backbenchers, ministerial ineptitude and failures, the pursuit of politically damaging ideological policies and targets, alienation of industry groups, and the corrosive effect of obsessive secrecy.
Too often, politics is being put ahead of policy.
The past few days exposed political and legislative crises involving record immigration and the bungled handling of the release of 150 convicted criminals fromimmigration detention, a backdown on controversialfuel efficiency standardsafter a rebellion by carmakers and buyers, a suspension of moves to protect offshore gas production, a standoff on resources rent tax, and a complete rejection by all faith groups of anyGreens involvementin a “bipartisan” settlement onreligious freedoms.
Some of these issues have been obvious for a long time, some are new threats, and others are just now apparent after brewing almost since Labor was elected.
All have been made worse by ministerial failure or overreach and/or the longstanding and pernicious process of Labor insisting that industry groups, so-called stakeholders and even church leaders abide by authoritarian and unnecessary nondisclosure agreements that limit discussion within and between interested parties negotiating with Labor.
The resulting prime ministerial interventions, policy overreach, political backlash, ALP caucus concern, ministerial arrogance and then backflips, gross ministerial failures, distraction from core business and a disdain for critics are leading to more comparisons with the Whitlam government – as in “the worst since Whitlam” – particularly among voters over 60, which is a considerable cohort.
Whitlamesque parallels are either rejected outright or downplayed as simply too long ago for anyone to remember. But, as Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership turned to custard with a lack of attention to detail and dismissive leadership, the tag “worst Liberal PM since Billy McMahon” was a potent political line.
It is also worth remembering that in the lead-up to the last election, Albanese himself bolstered his economic credentials and political expertise by declaring that he was an economic adviser to the Hawke government.
Given that the May budget will be brought down in the week of the 50th anniversary of the re-election of the Whitlam government – the first time a Labor PM was elected to a second term, which is surely a milestone Labor cannot ignore – the drawing of Whitlam-Albanese government parallels will be inescapable.
At least it will be some comfort that it isJim Chalmers, not Jim Cairns, who is Treasurer and there is a low inflation, low unemployment and non-recessionary economic environment.
Albanese, even with his earlier keen association with the Whitlam government, has also demonstrated an awareness to the damage long and frequent overseas travel can do to a leader, with Whitlam famously more interested in the ancient ruins of Greece than the contemporary ruins of Darwin after Cyclone Tracy.
The same can’t be said for the respective energy ministers Chris Bowen and Rex Connor. Like Connor,Bowen is a visionary-driven minister intent on imposing his broad plans irrespective of the immediate political or economic impact. Having recently demonstrated his acute awareness of the dangers of governments becoming distracted and distant from voters, Albanese launched a successful blitz in the new year to re-establish connection and take control of errant ministers and policies. Albanese committed himself to a traditional Westminster cabinet system in which the PM was among equals and ministers were allowed to run their ministries.
But the reality is that some of the ministers have failed to do their jobs competently and Albanese held back for too long before stepping in and trying to redirect growing political and policy disasters while misjudging, again, what Peter Dutton would do when faced with a crucial choice such as opposing tax cuts or supporting drastic, emergency changes to immigration controls.
As a result, in a dogwatch of a parliamentary sitting, curtailed for the Easter break, the Energy Minister was forced to water down Australian fuel efficiency standards under cover of recognition by the US of the threat to jobs and car sales in higher standards. There was confused jostling over powers between Resources Minister Madeleine King and Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek, and legislation on offshore gas production and a resources tax was pulled.
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| THEAUSTRALIAN.COM.AU02:54 Consumers ‘feel the pinch’ in fuel efficiency standard changes amid cost-of-living crisis |
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Although the backdown over fuel efficiency standards was nowhere near what motorists want to ensure car prices don’t go up and choice doesn’t become limited, or to blunt the Coalition’s “ute tax” attack because there is a future hike built in, they still threaten Bowen’s aim to meet emissions targets.
For almost two years, Bowen has been upsetting regional voters with a lack of consultation over renewable energy schemes, expanded transmission lines and the fuel efficiency standards so high that Labor electorates on the north and central coast of NSW have virtually been turned into marginal seats after local opposition to offshore wind turbines and transmission lines. Even Bowen’s cabinet colleague Catherine King complained about a lack of consultation in her Victorian electorate.
It is no coincidence that on Thursday Albanese returned to the Hunter region spruiking jobs based on new technologies as workers in the region awakened to the con involved in forecasts of new carbon-free jobs failing to factor in the loss of carbon jobs.
There was also concern on the Labor backbench that Bill Shorten’s “push back” against the states and territories over cost-sharing of the mammoth NDIS program was a sign there was not a full agreement on the biggest cost-cutting item in the budget.
Reducing the cost of the NDIS – now greater than Medicare – was the largest single cost-saving measure in the last budget and was deemed critical to economic improvement through controlling government spending.
Most spectacularly, the government’s urgent efforts to introducenew draconian migration measures, designed effectively to put released immigration detainees back into detentionand perhaps forestall further High Court challenges that may release more convicted criminals, failed dismally.
Adding to the sad saga of bungling on this issue from Immigration Minister Andrew Giles and Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil, the government was unable to specify genuine grounds for the extraordinary urgency being sought to pass the legislation, which includes mandatory 12-month jail sentences.
In a third attempt to fix faulty legislation Giles pressed for the draft bill, shown only to non-government parties an hour or so before tabling, to be passed within 24 hours with only a one-hour committee investigation and guillotine in the Senate.
Even Tony Burke, as government leader of the house, could see the extraordinary extent of the request to overturn parliamentary procedures and said: “I respect the different views around the parliament in terms of wanting to make sure legislation is never dealt with in this fashion. I hear those arguments. The reality is that there is a strong national interest here.”
But despite Burke’s defence of a “particular time sensitivity” in the national interest and a flawed assumption the Coalition would wave the tough measures through parliament in less than 24 hours, the ministers were unable to point to specific “time sensitivity” and Labor was forced to accept a delay until at least May or June for the “urgent” laws.
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| THEAUSTRALIAN.COM.AU07:27 Labor 'blaming the other side' over new immigration detainee legislation |
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Dutton is taking a calculated risk that there won’t be any further detainees released or a High Court decision that would have been remedied by the new laws. While it is a risk, the likelihood is the government will be held accountable for any more immigration failings.
But despite all of this, Albanese can still reasonably claim that he is not panicking because, while it may have come late, all his efforts have an aim at the bottom of them rather than being a case of running around like a Chicken Little with its head cut off.
This is because Albanese, and Dutton, are preparing a pre-budget realignment as well as a pre-election setting because, as of Easter, a federal election, which must be held by mid-May 2025, will have to be called within 12 months.
Albanese is trying legislatively to sweep away problems on energy, climate change, religious freedom and immigration detainees so that he can concentrate on cost of living relief in Chalmers’ May budget and, more broadly and more strategically, economic management.
Dutton is seeking to entrench a political and legislative dominance handed to him with the debacle on immigration detainees and carbon emissions policy, but is aware he will need to release a comprehensive energy policy with a detailed nuclear energy plan at its heart.
As well, the Coalition needs to produce reasoned immigration and housing alternatives to Labor so the Opposition Leader can keep the debate on his topics and turf, especially nuclear energy.
On Wednesday, in attacking Dutton personally and over nuclear energy – declaring both were toxic – Albanese signalled his intentions to fight Dutton on both fronts, but also betrayed his fears.
Labor pulled the trigger on tax cuts for lower income earners at the start of the year and is inserting more relief for those on low incomes and government payments in the budget, but Albanese knows Labor has to deliver a dividend beyond welfare relief and tax cuts after July 1.
It is clear the sugar hit of the tax cut announcement, most convenient for the Dunkley by-election, has worn off even before the tax cuts have been delivered.
The fundamental dividend that goes to reducing the cost of living across the board and relieves one of the greatest causes of household financial stress is an interest rate cut, at least one and preferably two before the end of the year or into early next year before the election.
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| THEAUSTRALIAN.COM.AU03:16 Workers in ‘every single electorate’ across Australia to benefit from reformed tax cuts |
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A further fall in unemployment this week and steady inflation figures will give heart to the government that the Reserve Bank may ease its hard line sooner rather than later, but a combination of RBA determination not to lose all the benefits of such hard-won ground in the inflation fight by easing rates too early and the new schedule for interest rate meetings could mean there is only one rate cut at best this year.
It is good for people that wages are rising, inflation is falling and unemployment is down but without tangible relief to rising costs at the supermarket due to power prices and on rent and mortgages caused by high interest rates the political advantage is limited. The underlying strength of both the Hawke-Keating and Howard-Costello governments was that they delivered, in different ways, times and areas, dividends to working people through real wage rises and lower interest rates.
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| THEAUSTRALIAN.COM.AU03:23 ‘Dangerous’: Concerns over Albanese working with the Greens on religious freedom |
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While many of the challenges Albanese now faces are the result of failed ministerial actions, his own confused approach to promised religious freedoms has added to the sense of a government not knowing what it is doing, springing surprises on voters, breaking promises and putting politics ahead of negotiations in good faith.
Albanese changed the terms of his election promise on guaranteeing religious freedoms by declaring they now required bipartisan support and immediately put conditions on that support, such as no parliamentary inquiry into the draft laws, which he knows the Coalition will not accept, and then shifted to seeking “bipartisanship” with the Greens and including conditions they cannot accept.
Faith leaders on Thursday, including all religions, finally freed from secrecy over the proposed laws, called on Albanese to withdraw from negotiations with the Greens because of their antipathy to the existing laws governing religious schools’ right to hire people who share their ethos.
For the faith leaders the status quo is a disappointment but it is better than running the risk of facing even greater limits on their freedoms, which they believe would destroy the integrity of religious schools.
It is almost as if Albanese has planned for the religious freedom reforms to fail by putting unacceptable conditions on the passage of the laws and then giving the faith leaders some cold comfort while telling the Greens and progressives it was Dutton’s fault.
It is this politics over policy that is eroding the authority and order of the Albanese government.
