I'm a Talga-is-a-rocketship believer as well but your numbers have some rosy assumptions:
Talga takes 9.6B revenue from the makers of 8m cars. That's US$1200 per car just for the anode. Doesn't that sound like a lot? The OEMs have cost pressure and (albeit less green) alternative suppliers from Asia. I think pricing pressure will keep it much lower than that.
There is no way Jose that Talga will be valued at 30x revenue when revenue is $9.6B. That valuation might apply to software/internet technology companies that have margins of 90% and dominate their markets through network effect. But that does not apply to a manufacturing company that has to build a physical product, hire a proportional workforce and deal with real supply chain, manufacturing and logistics. If $9.6B revenue represents maturity, then a reasonable valuation would be 10-20x NPAT, depending on risk and growth opportunities. When Talga is a manufacturer, it will not be special, it will be a player in a competitive market just like all the others. Yes it may have some competitive advantages but that won't make it a Facebook.
"Can stockpile ore in 2021 just need plant capacity" - yah, what plant? What mining capacity? They don't even have funding yet.
There are 265m shares outstanding today... how do they get to $9.6B revenue without dilution or JV? 300m shares is not realistic.
I've been holding since 2016 and I strongly believe there are many bags to be gained from here. But $1440 per share? Somebody's on their second bottle of wine
Not advice. Figaro
TLG Price at posting:
$1.85 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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